Superfreakonomics !

If you liked Steven Levitt’s Freakonomics, go for the sequel – ‘Superfreakonomics’.

Spent about an hour each night last week reading this book. Thought it actually helped appreciate the book even more.

As expected, fascinating insights about a variety of things.

It’s refreshing that someone even cared to analyse the data on most of the subjects discussed.

Read the book, it’s enjoyable right through, but here are a few bullet points (acquired disease from years of fooling around with Freelance graphics and Power Point) to get the curiosity levels going

1. Drunken walking is more dangerous than drunken driving
2. Even if prostitution is illegal, it serves specific purposes in society (not what is obvious) and that’s why it has its own place in the job market

3. Pimps add value in the market for prostitution; disintermediation is definitely less lucrative and can sometimes be harmful

4. TV, especially Cable TV, has lowered rate of female foeticide in India

5. Nearly 10% of expectant mothers died in labour in 19th century as doctors had dirty hands

Big Short Time in India?

I had a wonderful time reading Michael Lewis’ Big Short last week. Very contextual.


One of the fundamentals of investing, Warren Buffet emphasises, is never to invest in something that one doesn’t understand fully. This goes not only for retail investors, but for big banks, corporate, fund houses, hedge funds, whether they are from Wall Street or Timbuktoo. Unfortunately, very few investors are actually willing to admit that there is something about the market that they don’t understand. In fact, in some large mutual funds and hedge-funds, the complexity of the fund created is actually an index for intelligence. You only need to quiz the brokers to actually understand how shallow knowledge really is.

When one sways away from the basic rules of value investing, it is always a game of catching up. There are various techniques which are used, ‘averaging’, ‘straddling’, ‘investing on technicals’, ‘indexing to market volatility’, all of which are little more than finding words of solace to a wrong investment. After all, investment has been defined as ‘at best a bet where the odds are in assumed to be in favour’ and a long term investment is typically ‘a short-term investment gone bad’.

Michael Lewis explains colourfully that there is always a time lag between the first signals of a downturn and the actual crash in the market. Take the 'US Sub-prime', for instance. The first signals of failure of loans to sub-prime borrowers were there as early as in fall of 2006. However, the market actually caught cold only in late 2007 and the disease caught on in mid-2008. Then the US Government stepped in to help the collapsing Wall Street players and excusing them for their follies, in the hope that these guys will revive the financial system. Unfortunately, it’s now the Government’s turn to catch the virus, paying for their large heartedness back in 2009. Sovereign debts in major economies around the world are mounting with hitherto leading economies announcing that the worst is yet to come. George Soros had warned against this kind of capitulation more than a decade ago in his far-sighted book ‘The Crisis of Global Capitalism’. Ironically, the US economy seems to be pushing for more socialistic policies now, what with ‘taxing the rich’ and ‘incentivising the middle-class’ becoming buzzwords.

India seems to have remained relatively insulated even though the stock markets plummeted in 2008. At that time, the economic pundits had said India-centric policies and a hybrid protective economy were saviours for India. It’s difficult to believe that the situation remains similar in 2011. Insurance money gets invested in funds which are either Government bonds or blue chips, which have seen heavy volatility. Provident fund investments in long term projects and Government securities are under threat. FIIs have the freedom to get in and out of the stock markets and commodities - their flows take heavy toll on the domestic economy and forex markets. Capital borrowings are under severe pressure because of exchange rate volatility. Commodity prices have fallen sharply affecting the returns of the large blue chips and their stocks have tanked.

US and Europe which have been the main contributors to our economy and have paid top dollars to sons of our soil are now threatening to incentivize companies which create jobs from within. So, Information Technology sector is going to come under some pressure. The investments made by these NRIs in real estate in India are bound to suffer as a result. Already the sector is seeing several projects delayed and suffering for want of cash. Property market in cities like Hyderabad have taken a beating partly because of this - Telengana accounting for the balance. It doesn’t take much time for today's ‘prime’ borrowers to become ‘sub-prime’ – that is after all a factor of the cash in hand with the borrowers. Given high interest rates, high inflation and increase in gas prices, there’s going to be a clamour for more cash-based assets rather than long-term ones.

Folks, hold onto your cash - Looks like Big-Short- time in India is round the corner !

Hazaron Khwaishen ! (thousands of wishes!)

Anna Hazare has stirred a sleeping, often whining, nation into action. Support has been gathering for his protest and it’s been heartening to see that it hasn’t deteriorated into hysteria or mob fury at any time. It’s been perhaps the most technologically aided protest ever, what with supporters pouring in through media coverage, mobile phones and social networks.

The Jan Lokpal bill, for which they are protesting, seemed to take a back seat for a while. For about 2 days, it seemed all about the Government not allowing Mr. Hazare to fast and how fasting at a particular location became a goal in itself. There was bizarre media coverage on how fasting is actually good for health in certain respects and how the Government can’t stop free Indians from fasting. There was also a comparison of how Shaheed Bhagat Singh fasted for more hours in one year of imprisonment prior to his hanging, than perhaps Gandhiji did in his entire lifetime of Satyagraha. Finally, after the Hazare fast at Ramlila grounds has actually begun, we see the focus shifting to the bill itself, which is as it should be.

However, it is unlikely that the Hazare-version of the Lokpal bill will be a panacea against corruption. In our country, it has sadly become a way of life. Let’s not look at how we can proceed against corrupt people, but ask why there’s corruption in the first place. I reckon it’s because of the myriad procedural issues that as a nation we’ve built into every official activity that there is corruption. Licence Raj has been done away with but the administration procedures that has replaced them has only complicated matters. Everything from a marriage certificate to a customs authorization takes time, hence needs brokers/consultants who can get your work done faster and more efficiently. These are legitimate channels for illegitimate money flow. Even in business, we seem to love procedural hassles and revel in how we got over a potentially difficult set of procedures in quick time. In our operating procedures too, we tend to complicate matters – the more complicated they are, the better drafted they seem to be, and hence the need for the wise men who can interpret it for us. Entire generations perish in interpretational issues while our legal machinery piles on the backlog.

Contrast it with some other countries which don’t have corruption – or have very little corruption. I can speak from experience about Singapore, which has some of the least complicated laws and procedural hassles. Every little detail on any administrative matter is available on the net, explained clearly by way of visuals, your estimated waiting time is usually well within an hour, and the men/women at the counters are wonderful to deal with. You’ve forgotten to take photocopies?, no issues, they do it for you, lah. They encourage you to drop smileys in the slot if you find their service to have been good. Waiting itself is a pleasure in air-conditioned surroundings with entertainment to boot.

We need to get the intellectuals going to actually read our laws and procedures and contribute to simplifying them. If anything, this protest is against bad, toothless law making. Let’s join in then, to simplify procedures, show our parliaments that we can contribute effectively to law-making. Let’s protest to get the disposals of pending cases done in time-bound manner and hold accountable all those who delay the process. If that happens, this protest would have really led to something meaningful.

England on Fire, India Cooked !

England was on fire, in more senses than one, this week. Like fans are left praying for weather gods to interfere when Indian team faces defeat, this time one was almost hoping that the riots would spread and the tour would be called off. Alas that didn’t happen and yet another thorough rout followed.

In either innings, the team couldn’t collectively manage to score as much as one English batsman – Alistair Cook. Watching him bat, one couldn’t figure out how he would ever lose his wicket – his footwork was precise, he was smothering swing very well, his placements were impeccable, he had all the time in the world to compile his runs and he had a hapless bowling and fielding side at his mercy.

Praveen and Ishant did bowl their heart out – they would at best be 1st change bowlers for other test sides. Without Zaheer, the bowling side is clearly out of its depth. Sreesanth’s antics, are intolerable even when he’s in prime form. They get deplorably irritating when he bowls those half-trackers and gets smacked around. Can’t bowl, can’t field and can’t bat, that’s his updated Resume.

Is it talent that’s in short supply? On the evidence one has seen, one has to say ‘Yes’. The Fab 3 – Dravid, Sachin & Laxman, have definitely been better than the others, but definitely way below par when compared to their own prowess. Dhoni had said he would prefer Sehwag in the side even if he could barely walk. Sehwag walked in and out twice and didn’t actually give anyone time to comment on his fitness. He’s too good to miss out for too long, but openers who take the long flight out to join a team seldom seem to do well – remember Siddhu in ’91-92 against Australia? Gambhir seems ill-equipped to handle swing and bounce. Mukund / Vijay would not have faced such bowling and are too loose in their stroke play to qualify at the top at this level. Raina, Yuvi and Virat are good stroke players when the ball does nothing, but in these conditions, they simply aren’t good enough to inspire any confidence. You look around and find that if the Fab 3 retire, as they must very soon, the middle order would be barren and one would wager any leading bowling side to slice through even in slightly helpful conditions. The tail is too long and that finishes the batting line up.

Zaheer is 32 and is not getting younger, Munaf, Ishant, Sreesanth and the others we’ve seen of late like Unadkhat, Mithun are hardly test-class. Bhajji seems to be have lost his off spin and is struggling. Mishra, Chawla and Pragyan have done nothing to prove that they can bowl well to good batsmen; taking wickets is another matter altogether. If these are not helpful conditions for bowling and our bowlers can’t take wickets in these conditions, then things don’t seem too bright.

Talent is, however, only half the problem. In England, it’s been intent. In fact one has to go back a few weeks and see the way they finished off the Caribbean tour. After being in wonderful position to win the last 2 test matches, they squandered the advantage and actually chose not to chase victory in a ludicrous, safety-firt, move in the last Test. I think the slide began there. Fortune favours the brave, and it must be said, punishes the coward. Dhoni has now got punished enough for that decision.

Going by the magnitude of the English onslaught, it may be some time yet before one sees a strong Indian side emerging victorious on foreign soil. One only hopes that a conscious effort is made in the interim to bolster the bench-strength and youngsters learn how to play the real game, Test Cricket. If we continue to applaud the slog over third man or the swing around the cow-corner, Indian Cricket would continue to experience the slide.

Back to basics

It'd been several years since I had the 'opportunity' to travel by public transport - local train, bus, auto. Atleast over the last 4 years, car took me everywhere, I either drove or was driven. Over the last 2, have had the good fortune of not having to travel much to & from work in any case.

This last week has been different. (No) thanks to dad's hip surgery, I had decided to operate from Tambaram and resolved to commute to my office in Chamiers Road by public transport. Even so, at the last minute on tuesday morning, resolve deteriorated and I took a A/c call-taxi. I returned rather comfortably too, auto to T Nagar bus stand and from there, I got a seat all the way to Tambaram.

There were many opinions as to which is the fastest, most comfortable commute. One, which came from dad, was that there is 21G from Tambaram which would take me to the Park Sheraton bus stand without having to change modes of transport. This I tried on wednesday morning and it took a leisurely 90 mins and I fretted with every application of the brake as the bus negotiated traffic. I decided train would be the better bet to reach faster.

Sure enough getting to office on thursday and friday was quicker, not necessarily more comfortable. At the stations which I alighted, Mambalam and Saidapet, the eager auto drivers charged the usual premium. Unwilling to get into any argument, I promptly paid what they asked for. It was on thursday evening that I got a bit adventurous and tried an alternate route to get home. This route gave me good physical exercise, having had to walk atleast for 40 minutes in sultry weather and I took a little over 2 hours to reach home.

Today, which I presume will be the last date of such a commute for quite a while to come, I finally cracked the best route, the best timing and the most economical trip. A/c bus at 8 30 am from Tambaram, took me to office by 915 am (although there was a garrulous young lady who I would have wished to avoid if that was her usual route; the whole bus couldn't tolerate her).

Some features that have changed a great deal from my school days of travel by bus - buses have always been crowded in Chennai. Seats are definitely better; information system with an announcement is in place in some stops; crowd is more silent - mobiles being ubiquitous; traffic is horrendous, wonder how the drivers retain sanity; conductors use a hand-held ticket issuing system, are definitely more polite (still not polite enough!); passengers transport sweat and filth and leave it in the buses; buses still don't stop near bus-stands; perhaps I could add more to this. However, people don't wait endlessly in bus stops like they used to, I see people taking some mode of transport or the other - share-autos, alternate buses, hitch-hikes, whatever, but keep moving. In any case, most of them are busy with their mobile phones and can't seem to care where they are walking.

So much for travel in Chennai by public transport. Only wish people spitted less and cared more for fellow passengers. The country side along the railway tracks seem loaded with plastic waste and it will be a herculean task if and when there's a concerted movement to clean up. Perhaps that'll need a Lok-Commonsense Bill?

Alas, No Rhythm in Calypso Cricket Anymore!

My Class IV English textbook had a chapter on Central America, but all I remember was the phrase 'Calypso Cricket' and a photograph of cricket on the beach that was a part of that lesson. Ever since, I've had a fascination for cricket in the caribbean, second only to my rather partisan following of Indian cricket. Against all other nations other than India, I've been a Windies fan.

In the 1982-83 series in the West Indies, when radio was all that we had to keep track of cricket, one heard the voice of the ageless Tony Cozier describe how Marshall, Holding, Roberts and Davis were feeding on Indian incompetence against fast, short-pitched bowling. Amarnath and to a lesser extent Gavaskar, managed to salvage some pride for India in that series.

India won the world cup final shortly afterward, but what followed thereafter in India was nothing short of carnage. Marshall was at his prime and even the dead Indian wickets did not prevent him (or for that matter 'Rolls-Royce' Holding or Andy Roberts) from slicing through the Indian batting line up time and again. Crushing defeats in India, Ahmedabad and Kolkata followed and one-dayers were a no-contest. The opening duo of Greenidge and Haynes, followed by an imposing batting line up of Gomes, Richards, Lloyd, Logie, Dujon was just too much for Indian bowling although Kapil, Madan Lal, Binny, Shivlal Yadav and Maninder Singh did put in their best. Post-Lloyd, Richards' team had the same battery of fast bowlers with Patterson, Bishop, Walsh and Ambrose joining the club. Their team played with an air of resignation, that their batsmen will tear into the opposition, set up imposing scores in quick time and then their bowlers would clean up the opposition twice. With almost boring regularity, they continued to dominate and whitewash opponent teams.

Since then, they've of course had a smattering of class players - Lara was regal right through his career. I absolutely adored the batting of Carl Hooper although statistics don't bear out how good he was. But they've been so few and so far between that quite a few of them seemed to be there to merely make up the numbers. One hated to see Sherwin Campbell at the crease.

Wonder how they allowed Caribbean cricket to deteriorate in the manner it has. It would have been quite hard for youngsters then not to have idolised their own stars and not raised their own standards and followed cricket as a religion. True, soccer and basketball may have caught their fancy for the west indians are naturally athletic, but to have altogether dropped their standards in the manner they have, is really hard to digest. Now, barring Fidel Edwards to a certain degree, they don't have a fast bowler worth mentioning and barring Darren Bravo, there seems to be no sign of class in their batting line up. Add to that, Gayle who has the charisma to get the crowd going anywhere in the world is at loggerheads with the governing body for cricket there and there seems to be no end to misery.

It's high time they brought in some outside-in talent to resurrect cricket. What rock is to music, calypso style is to cricket. Usher in the rhythm !

Entries from a Holiday Diary

Here are notes from a recent holiday that I just had to take to retain my senses.

Date	Program	Highlights
28.5.2011	Train from Egmore to Kodai	Went by car, Unni drove. Paid Rs. 80 for hardly 100 ft walk to the porter. Went by first class after nearly 30 years!
29.5.2011	Arrived in Kodai	Went to Sabari Resorts. From there took a walk to the town and a small ride by bus to the lake. Walked to Bryant Park where there was annual flower show. After photo shoots, took a bicycle road. Sandhya and Smruthi took a horse ride. Got caught in the rain and then we took a cab ride back to the hotel. Skipped lunch and had hi-tea instead.
30.5.2011	Kodai day 2	Took a cab from the hotel at a cost of Rs. 1050 for a day trip to sightseeing spots in Kodai – including Kurinji Andavar koil, chettiyar park, jain temple, coaker’s walk, upper lake view, pine forest, Guna Point and Pillar Rock – took some good snaps along the way. Bought some good home made chocolates. Had late lunch at a veg joint Rasoi near Seven Road junction and returned to the Hotel
31.5.2011	Kodai day 3	Decided to go to lake area and spend the day there. Boating first. Went to Bryant Park and relaxed for an hour watching some 3rd rate cine dance programme. From there walked along the lake and took bicycle ride for an hour around the lake. Thereafter walked uphill to seven road junction back to Rasoi where all of us had a hearty meal.  On the way from there had a cup of hot chocolate and Smruthi and I had a tiff over who should have the remainder of the cup. After the meal, went back to lake area and sat by the lake and attended to some office calls. Thereafter got back to hotel.
1.6.11	Kodai-madurai	Mahesh, the driver arranged by Travel House, promptly arrived at 945 am to take us to Madurai. Jayashree had a tough time throwing up while descending from the hills. Arrived at Athai’s place by 1 pm and had a good lunch. Thereafter left for Meenakshi temple by 3:30 pm. Had a good darshan there and then went to a perumal temple about a km away. After that went to Pappa periamma’s house where met Kittu Anna and Balu Anna and perima. After a brief stay returned to Athai’s place.
2.6.11	Madurai-Rameshwaram	Left early at 6 am by road all the way to Rameshwaram. Had a dip in the sea, then 22 teerthams and had a darshan of the lord there. After lunch at a Marwari bhojnalaya, went to Dhanushkodi. On the way back saw Abdul Kalam’s house at Rameshwaram and returned. Reached Athai’s place by 730 in the evening
3.6.11	Madurai-Nagercoil	Left around 8 am to go to Azhagar koil and then onward to Nupur Gangai and to Pazhamudhir cholai. Saw hordes of monkeys in all these places. Returned to athai’s place by 12 noon itself, had lunch and packed off to the station by 3:30 pm. Waited at the station for nearly an hour before we took the NCJ train to Nagercoil. Train reached around 10 pm and we checked into the Tamil Nadu Hotel around 1045 pm
4.6.11	Kanyakumari	After a disappointing early morning when the scenic sunrise was denied by cloud cover, had the pleasure of shooting some peacocks right next to the cottage room. Thereafter made a trip to the nearby places such as Vivekananda Rock Memorial, Gandhi memorial, Kamarajar memorial, and returned to the hotel for lunch. In the evening went to Kanyakumari temple, the sunset point where we had a good view of the sunset and then went to Susindram temple. Surprised to see how good and neat this temple was.
5.6.11	Kanyakumari-chennai	Left at 7 in the morning and went straight to Tirupirappu falls. The boat ride was disappointing for a tourist spot, but the waterfall shower was good. Facilities are below average, but it was good to strip down to bare essentials in the open. Carried on from there to Mathur Palam, which is a narrow footbridge about 40 ft from ground level with some breathtaking views. The footbridge’s construction seemed to elevate the spirit of adventure. Then onto Padmanabhapuram palace where we spent about an hour listening to some good govt sponsored tourist guides who gave us a walkthrough of the palace rooms. Went to a Udipi hotel at Nagercoil for lunch and decided that we would like our dinner also packed by the same hotel. After some suspense on whether we’ll get the reservation or not as 3 out of 4 tickets were waitlisted, got the tickets confirmed with some help from Jayashree’s mama. The pack for dinner proved to be a tight call as we reached the station minutes before arrival of the train.
6.6.11	Chennai Egmore, Vettuvangeni guest house	Arrived at 730 am and was received by Prakash. Had home food for the first time in 10 days and enjoyed whatever it was. Had a nap and then drove to the beach guest house at Vettuvangeni. Had a good time at the quiet beach there. Thunder showers greeted the evening.
7.6.11	Pondicherry	Left after Breakfast from the guest house and arrived at Pondicherry by 12 noon. Had a brief rest after which went to Chunnambar boat house. The boat ride was average. Then kids frolicked for a while at the nearby park. In the evening took a stroll around beach area and went to Ambedkar’s memorial, a Notre Dame church, the light house and Gandhi Statue at the beach. Dinner at Le Café right at the beach.
8.6.11	Pondicherry	11th Wedding anniversary, got calls from Appa, Amma, Rajesh, Priya right at the beginning of the day. Went to Manakula Vinayagar temple and took a good snap of the temple elephant on the blackberry. Thereafter had a quiet visit to Aurobindo Ashram and a sumptuous breakfast at Hot Breads. Somehow kids seemed to really enjoy the visit to Hot Breads. Thereafter went to Auroville, where one had to take a trek of about a km to go to a viewing point to see Matrimandir a conceptual architectural structure. With visitors not allowed beyond this point, it seemed a little disappointing. Thereafter went to Pachavati where there is a panchamukha anjaneyar temple, but the temple was closed. Had lunch at Surguru spot and returned to the Hotel. In the evening Ganesh Anna had called us over for dinner but unfortunately his son Sriram had had a fall and severe pain at the back of the head. Went to, you guessed it, Hot Breads for dinner as well.  Thereafter Ganesh Anna picked us up from there and took us to his house where we stayed for about an hour. Returned to hotel by around 1030 pm.
9.6.11	Pondicherry-Chennai	Last day of the holiday. In many ways an unforgettable adventure packed day which one would like to forget as soon as possible.  After breakfast left the hotel by 9am and went to a petrol pump, where an absent minded attendant poured diesel in a petrol tank. It took nearly 3 hours of work thereafter with help of an industrious mechanic to get the entire tank drained and replaced. Left from there to be greeted by a Rasta Roko about 1 km down from the toll plaza. Had to brief appa, and Ganesh Anna about it as it was already 1 pm and kids were beginning to feel hungry. As it got cleared and we had hardly gone another 1 km down the road that we had an accident. One indica swerved from the left all of a sudden and in order to avoid it, I curved to the right and a speeding car came from behind and hit my front wheel. The damage to the front of the car is not much, but certainly can’t be ignored. The wheel alignment was disturbed. After this had to resort to some more calls to get help to get the car into a garage and take another car and come back to the city.  Got home around 6:30 pm, about 5 hours behind plan. Man proposes, God Disposes. In the end, we were lucky it wasn’t a much bigger vehicle and weren’t caught in further drama involving police etc.

Kodai

Train : 3000, stay 23000, local exps 2000 : 28k

Madurai, rameshwaram etc : 8000 by car (only tax component will be the eventual exp), local expenditure approx 1000, total : 4k

Kanyakumari

Hotel 4000, car exps should be around 5000, local exps about 2000, train from Madurai 3000, train to Chennai 6000. Total 16k

Pondicherry

Car to Pondicherry : petrol 2500, car back from Pondy 1600, Hotel 4500, local exps 2500 : total 12K

Grand total : 60K